Rafa wins the Australian Open

R. Nadal def. R. Federer 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-2

Is this the watershed moment? The match where Rafa makes a clean break from Federer and takes over No 1 in dominating fashion? As impressive as Nadal was in 2008, and he was mighty impressive, in the back of my mind I had the sense that it couldn't last. Nadal's style was too physical to keep up. Federer's off-year due to illness would be over and he'd return to win a lions' share of titles, if not dominate outright. But Rafa's win here made a believer out of me.

The Grand Slam Kingdom, if you will, is divided up into 3 major parts; hard court (2), clay (1), and grass (1). Before this match, Nadal dominated the clay of Roland Garros and had even squeezed out a win on the grass of Wimbledon. Federer fans (including yours truly) could write that off, however, as Nadal barely won 9-7 in the 5th, and Federer has long-dominated Wimbledon. Since Federer is the #2 clay court player in the world, he could gain an adequate number of points during that season, and then mop up in the hard-court Slams, where Nadal had never even made a final. Now that's all changed, and Federer's territory is under attack from all sides. What's more, Nadal's win gives him a 3000 pt lead in the rankings, ensuring that he's going to be #1 for at least the first half of the year.

The match itself was an insta-classic. The first 5 set final in 21 years, it capped one of the best Grand Slam tourneys in recent history, IMO. It was not, however, at the level of their Wimbledon final in '08. Both men were broken several times, and Federer had a dismal serving day, at only 52% first serves in. He somehow lucked out the 2nd set serving in the low 40s. I thought Federer's forehand was rock solid, and the key for him to be able to win despite such poor serving. The most stunning statistic from the match came from Nadal's service placement, and Federer's inability (or unwillingness) to run around the backhand on the return of serve.


Out of 59 second serves, 2 went to Federer's forehand, both in the ad court. Rafa went out wide a whopping 0 times in the deuce court. Early in the 1st set Federer ran around a backhand on breakpoint and drilled a forehand return up the line for a clean winner. Why Roger didn't continue to do this throughout the match is beyond me.

In the wake of this match the "Roger needs a coach!" drum has been pounded loud and often. "A coach could point out that Roger needs to run around the backhand return!" they cry. Listen, Federer's no idiot. He's often praised for his ability to problem solve during matches and subtly change tactics. I've gotta believe that Federer knew about the return. For whatever reason, he chose not to do it. Stubborness? A fear of giving up too much court?

There are major matchup issues that Nadal presents Federer. Primarily the fact that as a lefty, Nadal's forehand goes into Federer's backhand. Yeah, you say, but Federer's forehand goes to Nadal's backhand as well! The difference is that Federer (and everyone else) usually plays against righties, and are accustomed to using an inside-out forehand to take control of a point. Nadal often returns that inside-out forehand with an even stronger forehand, and instead of being in control of the point, Federer is unexpectedly on his heels. Similarly, the chip backhand Federer uses to take opponents out of position goes right into Nadal's wheelhouse. Also, Nadal's topspin allows him to exploit Federer's lack of power on a high backhand, a limitation of the one-hander. Most of all, I think Patrick McEnroe nailed it when he said that against Nadal, Federer has to push himself to be more aggressive. He's used to relying on defense until he can get his offense working again, but Nadal is just as good at the transition game and punishes any ball Federer leaves short. Federer has to play outside his comfort zone. I do agree that Nadal is in Federer's head, and maybe a coach could help in that regard. I'm not sure, but I'm not going to jump on Federer for not having a coach just yet. If he had won, wouldn't we have been praising him for how he managed to pull himself out of last years slump to win the US Open and the Australian Open, all single-handedly?

Lastly, I've never been a huge fan of Nadal; his game is just too workman-like for me. But I gained a tremendous amount of respect for him as a person for the way he handled the post-match ceremony. As Federer broke down (my opinion? not a fan of the tears, Rog) and the emcee said they were going to present the trophy while Federer took a break, I thought, wow how is Rafa gonna deal with this? His handling of the situation was pitch perfect. Putting his arm around Roger to console him while preserving his right to speak last was a stroke of genius. I was struck by Nadal's poise and maturity at only 22 years old. I know that Federer is 5 years Rafa's senior, but in this moment the roles had reversed: Rafa was now the big brother.