The Mental Strength of a Champion

Somehow having snuck past security, the lunatic in a red get-up gathered himself on a court side seat, leapt over the divider onto the court and made a break for Roger. Startled out of his returner's position, Federer took a step back and tried to wave the guy off. The idiot would not be denied though, and tried to force a cap onto Federer's head before getting chased around and eventually flattened by security. The YouTube videos of this incident are getting taken down left and right, but this one currently exists (no embedding possible): watch video here. Roger committed a string of errors to lose that game, but regrouped quickly and went on to defeat Robin Soderling 6-1, 7-6(1), 6-4 and win his first Roland Garros title.

Emblematic of that final, Roger's greatest adversities seemed to come off-court rather than the opponents he faced on-court. First Novak Djokovic bowed out. Then came the surprise of the tournament, with Soderling taking out Rafael Nadal, followed by Andy Murray falling to Fernando Gonzalez. All of a sudden Federer was installed as an overwhelming favorite to win the only major title that eluded him, and he was playing far below his best. In his match against Tommy Haas the pressure appeared to be too much; Federer dropped the first two sets and was five measly points from losing before roaring back to win in 5. The pressure to win, and win now, felt enormous. Who knew if Federer would ever get a shot at a title match again, nevermind a shot without having to face Nadal? As Federer mentioned in his press conference:

When I walk on the streets or drive in the transportation or I go for dinner, everybody is like, This is your year. You've got to do it.

They're screaming from their scooters and out of the car. They even get out at the red lights and want me to sign an autograph or take a picture. It's quite incredible this last couple of weeks.

Obviously, Roger felt a lot of support from the French crowd. I don't know about you, but when someone tells me I _have_ to do something, or they're expecting me to pull through, I feel more pressure. Right before I turned 16 and got my driver's license, my sister or mom was talking about how crazy a driver I would be, and it was only a matter of time until I had an accident. My dad cut in though, and said "No, Jesse'll be a good driver." That set me on edge; now I had an expectation I had to live up to, rather than one I could prove wrong. If you ever want to motivate me just tell me I can't do something - I'll be working on it immediately.

So to me, the way Roger handled the pressure and emerged a champion is even more impressive. If you've followed Peter Bodo's blog he's given Federer some grief in the past for not having a Warrior Badge Moment, a la Sampras serving his way through tears against Courier in the Australian Open, or Michael Chang fighting off cramps and defeating Lendl at the French. I'm stepping into Pete's office temporarily, ripping a WMB off his desk, and pinning it on Roger for that inside-out forehand winner he hit against Haas on break point, down 2 sets to love. And credit to McEnroe, who immediately pointed out the significance of that shot should he go on to win the tournament. With this victory Roger becomes only the 6th man to complete a career Grand Slam (winning all 4 of tennis' major titles), and ties Pete Sampras for the lead with 14 Slams. In the wake of these achievements many have already weighed in, proclaiming Roger the Greatest of All Time, including the likes of Sampras and Rod Laver.

Speaking of McEnroe, a big thumbs up to the Tennis Channel (I refuse to call it just Tennis Channel) for their gigantic improvement. I've criticized them in the past, but their coverage of Roland Garros was on par or even better than ESPN's, and they shelled out for some serious talent in the booth and in the production trailer. Really, a job Well Done.

The first few days of post-Roland Garros has seen the tennis landscape change dramatically. Federer and Nadal have now split the last 4 Grand Slams, and with news of Nadal's knee tendinitis and his Wimbledon participation in jeopardy, Roger has to be considered the favorite. Things are getting really interesting as we race toward the Super Bowl of tennis; Wimbledon, starting up in London on June 22. See you there.

Match Preview: Federer vs. Monfils

Federer's French Open campaign is starting to look destiny-kissed as he marches toward the final and a date with immortality. Winning the only Grand Slam he has yet to capture would tie him with Sampras for the record, but leave him alone in most people's minds. Nadal, Djokovic and Murray have all fallen; Federer's chief obstacles are out of the way, but he still has three very tough matches to go before he can lift the trophy.

Next up is Gael Monfils, the acrobatic Frenchman that Federer met in the semis last year at Roland Garros. The head2head is 4-0 for the Swiss, with the '08 French their last meeting. Federer took that match in 4 tough sets, and with the energy Monfils has displayed so far, this year's matchup looks to be just as electric. Here's a classic point from Monfils, scrambling, diving, and whipping the crowd into hysterics.



Dobeng - looks a little like Steven, no?

Federer opens a Magic Box of whupass on Nadal

Time flies when you're ignoring your blog, doesn't it? A week slips by, then two, and you realize you haven't posted anything. Like a high school ex-girlfriend, you start avoiding eye contact with her in the hall, devising alternate routes to class, anything to miss the awkwardness of that first conversation. A month goes by and you realize you can't keep this up forever, but now that you've waited so long you better have something important/interesting to say.

Well, Sunday's match between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal saved the day and provided the icebreaker! Federer and Nadal met in the final of the Madrid 1000, a top clay tournament and the final tune-up to the French Open. Against all predictions, Federer stunned Nadal in a straight-set shocker, snapping Rafa's 33 match win streak on clay (and simultaneously ending Federer's title drought).

This wasn't their highest-quality match; I don't have the stats in front of me atm but I believe Federer was only even in the winners to unforced errors ratio and Nadal was in the negative. Yes, Djokovic had worn Nadal down the day before with a 4 hr semifinal, but more important was the way Federer played this match and what it could mean for the near future. Federer finally made a few changes to his game to switch things up against Nadal: he ran around his backhand and hit his forehand inside-in (up the line to Nadal's backhand, instead of inside-out to Nadal's more powerful forehand), he serve-volleyed on occasion, and he made liberal use of the dropshot.

Quickly then, since this is our first post back and we don't want to seem boring to our new ex-girlfriend: The importance of Federer's win outweighs the importance of Nadal's loss. Nadal wrote this off as a bad day on a very fast clay court. "To me, this tournament has nothing to do with Paris. This tournament is practically another surface compared to Paris," he said. For Federer though, this win provides a much-needed confidence boost one week before the only Grand Slam he has yet to win starts. If they meet again on June 7, Federer's quest for the career Grand Slam would seem a lot more attainable.

Roger Federer updates

Alright, back to the Pro Tour. After 6 weeks of absence, Federer returns and the news reports are flying in fast enough to give you whiplash. First Federer hires Darren Cahill as his coach. Then reports come out that it's not true, Cahill turned Federer down because it would be too much travel. And today, Federer drops the bomb that his long-time girlfriend Mirka is PREGGERS!

I also have some really awesome news to share with all of you: Mirka and I are excited to let you know that we will be parents this summer! Mirka is pregnant and we are so happy to be starting a family together. This is a dream come true for us. We love children and we are looking forward to being parents for the first time. Mirka is feeling great and everything is going well.

Speak soon and thanks for all your continued support!

Roger

From rf.com

I've long suspected that Federer was holding off on marrying Mirka because he didn't want anything to change. I mentioned how superstitious I got in one weekend of tournament play; you can imagine how much Federer wanted things to stay the same as he dominated for 4 years. Well, that's all over. There are several male pros that have successfully played on the tour with a wife and kids in tow, including Agassi, but this will be a big change for Federer. Will it be the distraction that derails his career and pursuit of his record-tying 14th Grand Slam? Was that going to happen anyway, thanks to Nadal? It'll be interesting to see.

Rafa wins the Australian Open

R. Nadal def. R. Federer 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-2

Is this the watershed moment? The match where Rafa makes a clean break from Federer and takes over No 1 in dominating fashion? As impressive as Nadal was in 2008, and he was mighty impressive, in the back of my mind I had the sense that it couldn't last. Nadal's style was too physical to keep up. Federer's off-year due to illness would be over and he'd return to win a lions' share of titles, if not dominate outright. But Rafa's win here made a believer out of me.

The Grand Slam Kingdom, if you will, is divided up into 3 major parts; hard court (2), clay (1), and grass (1). Before this match, Nadal dominated the clay of Roland Garros and had even squeezed out a win on the grass of Wimbledon. Federer fans (including yours truly) could write that off, however, as Nadal barely won 9-7 in the 5th, and Federer has long-dominated Wimbledon. Since Federer is the #2 clay court player in the world, he could gain an adequate number of points during that season, and then mop up in the hard-court Slams, where Nadal had never even made a final. Now that's all changed, and Federer's territory is under attack from all sides. What's more, Nadal's win gives him a 3000 pt lead in the rankings, ensuring that he's going to be #1 for at least the first half of the year.

The match itself was an insta-classic. The first 5 set final in 21 years, it capped one of the best Grand Slam tourneys in recent history, IMO. It was not, however, at the level of their Wimbledon final in '08. Both men were broken several times, and Federer had a dismal serving day, at only 52% first serves in. He somehow lucked out the 2nd set serving in the low 40s. I thought Federer's forehand was rock solid, and the key for him to be able to win despite such poor serving. The most stunning statistic from the match came from Nadal's service placement, and Federer's inability (or unwillingness) to run around the backhand on the return of serve.


Out of 59 second serves, 2 went to Federer's forehand, both in the ad court. Rafa went out wide a whopping 0 times in the deuce court. Early in the 1st set Federer ran around a backhand on breakpoint and drilled a forehand return up the line for a clean winner. Why Roger didn't continue to do this throughout the match is beyond me.

In the wake of this match the "Roger needs a coach!" drum has been pounded loud and often. "A coach could point out that Roger needs to run around the backhand return!" they cry. Listen, Federer's no idiot. He's often praised for his ability to problem solve during matches and subtly change tactics. I've gotta believe that Federer knew about the return. For whatever reason, he chose not to do it. Stubborness? A fear of giving up too much court?

There are major matchup issues that Nadal presents Federer. Primarily the fact that as a lefty, Nadal's forehand goes into Federer's backhand. Yeah, you say, but Federer's forehand goes to Nadal's backhand as well! The difference is that Federer (and everyone else) usually plays against righties, and are accustomed to using an inside-out forehand to take control of a point. Nadal often returns that inside-out forehand with an even stronger forehand, and instead of being in control of the point, Federer is unexpectedly on his heels. Similarly, the chip backhand Federer uses to take opponents out of position goes right into Nadal's wheelhouse. Also, Nadal's topspin allows him to exploit Federer's lack of power on a high backhand, a limitation of the one-hander. Most of all, I think Patrick McEnroe nailed it when he said that against Nadal, Federer has to push himself to be more aggressive. He's used to relying on defense until he can get his offense working again, but Nadal is just as good at the transition game and punishes any ball Federer leaves short. Federer has to play outside his comfort zone. I do agree that Nadal is in Federer's head, and maybe a coach could help in that regard. I'm not sure, but I'm not going to jump on Federer for not having a coach just yet. If he had won, wouldn't we have been praising him for how he managed to pull himself out of last years slump to win the US Open and the Australian Open, all single-handedly?

Lastly, I've never been a huge fan of Nadal; his game is just too workman-like for me. But I gained a tremendous amount of respect for him as a person for the way he handled the post-match ceremony. As Federer broke down (my opinion? not a fan of the tears, Rog) and the emcee said they were going to present the trophy while Federer took a break, I thought, wow how is Rafa gonna deal with this? His handling of the situation was pitch perfect. Putting his arm around Roger to console him while preserving his right to speak last was a stroke of genius. I was struck by Nadal's poise and maturity at only 22 years old. I know that Federer is 5 years Rafa's senior, but in this moment the roles had reversed: Rafa was now the big brother.

What's Eating Roger Federer?

Federer's been irritable the past couple of weeks. My crackpot friend Jacobs might call this a more "interesting" Federer, but I think we all know what it is - a shout-out to me! Clearly Federer's seen the Top 5 Tennis Villains list and was disappointed to not make the cut.

Q. Still seems a bit strange when you said “former champion like me.”

ROGER FEDERER: Former No. 1 I said.

Q. Former No. 1. Does that seem a little bit strange?

ROGER FEDERER: For both of us. I didn't say former champion. I said former Grand Slam champion and former No. 1.

Q. I misspoke.

ROGER FEDERER: Exactly.

Sheesh. This comes on the heels of Federer scoffing at the suggestion that Murray is one of the favorites. Federer's also made it clear that he dislikes being introduced as the World Number 2, stating that he's either #1, Grand Slam Champion, or nothing. Why so serious, Fed?

Pete Bodo boiled it down to this: "Last year in Melbourne, TMF had mono - so that edition of the Australian Open isn't relevant. The implication is that this year, it will be back to business as usual - meaning, another silken Federer triumph. In the Federer era, this will be the grand restoration." Maybe Federer doesn't have anything left to prove. But I think he's feeling the pressure in Australia to live up to this idea, that last year was a fluke. He did win last year's US Open, but I'm not sure if that's a boon (he's already proved he can still win majors) or burden (people are expecting him to win all the majors again).

The pressure hasn't seem to affected his match play so far. He subdued a strong Seppi in the first round, and then took Korolev out behind the woodshed in round 2. His forehand and movement are crisp. The marquee match tonight against Safin would have more cachet if Marat hadn't pooped all over his chances in an interview with Brad Gilbert. "It's going to be impossible" were his exact words. Roger's expected to beat these characters, though. If the semifinal match against Djokovic materializes, that will be a good indication of how he holds up under expectations. As tough as his game is physically, Federer's just as strong mentally. I'm sticking with my prediction that he meets this challenge and holds up the trophy on Feb 1st.

Australian Open Draw Released

Draws available here. Let's take a look at the paths of the Big 4, a few notables, and then I'll make my predictions.

1. Rafael Nadal
Nadal's got an easy first couple of rounds but could then meet Tommy "The Gun" Haas or "Hollywood" Tursunov in the 3rd round, followed by Jerkstore Hewitt or Gonzo. There are some challenges in his quarter, as Monfils and Gilles "My name is See-moan" Simon loom, but I find it hard to see Monfils replicating his feat from last week, although Wertheim apparently sees it differently.

2. Roger Federer
The early talk is of how tough Federer's draw is. Let's break this down. Federer starts with Andreas Seppi, Carlos Moya and then Safin in the 3rd round (potentially). Roger JUST beat Seppi and Moya easily in his last warmup tournament, and while Safin is a dangerous 3rd round, Federer has won 6 of the last 7 matches they've played. A rematch with Djokovic in the semis is likely, but Federer is lucky that Nadal, Simon, and Murray all are in the opposite half.

3. Novak Djokovic
The defending champion should open with two easy matches, but things step up in a hurry from there. He could meet Jarkko Nieminen in the 3rd round, something he'll be hoping to avoid since he just lost to the Finn yesterday. Baghdatis is also a dangerous floater in this quarter.

4. Andy Murray
Murray starts off with the veteran Andrei Pavel and could meet the rising Kei Nishikori in the 3rd round. I believe Nishikori is injured though, so most likely it'll be Jurgen Melzer, followed by Fernando "Tobasco" Verdasco, and either James Blake or Tsonga. Just to get to the semis! This is a brutal section of the draw, and the hardest quarter for any of the top 4, IMO.

Other Notables:

7. Andy Roddick
Top American gets a qualifier in round 1, but meets the crafty serve-volleyer Michael Llodra after that. Former #1 Juan Carlos Ferrero, Sam "SQL" Querrey and Roddick's conqueror from last year, Kohlschreiber, are possible 3rd round opponents. Stefanki will need to have his pupil ready to go from the start.

9. James Blake
Newest Fila sponsor has progressed one round farther the last 4 years, leading to a quarterfinal showing in 2008. A repeat performance is not out of the question, but he'll have to get by the powerful Frenchman, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

14. Fernando Verdasco
Tobasco ended 2008 as a Davis Cup hero, and is picking up right where he left off. An extremely tight match with Federer (7-6(5)) in the 3rd shows his game is in fine form. With any luck some of the Aussie love being showered on his girl Ivanovic will land on him. 3rd rounder against Stepanek could be a good one.

Ernests Gulbis
thessmallspot is bullish on this Latvian's game. His 6'3" frame allows him to generate the power needed for a Top 10 ranking, but he's still prone to lapses in concentration. Look for Gulbis to make some noise in the early rounds against Andreev and possibly Blake.

Lleyton Hewitt
Brutal draw for the hometown favorite, as the Jerkstore gets the Number 13 seed right off the bat. In his prime Hewitt would've destroyed Gonzo, feasting on all the unforced errors and relentlessly targeting the Chilean's backhand. However, Hewitt's been dogged by injuries and isn't as consistent as he used to be. I'll take Lleyton over Fernando, but don't expect him to get much further.

Predictions

Hard to pick against the Big 4 right now, but how boring is that? The Australian Open always seems to produce one surprise finalist ie. Schuettler, Johansson, Baghdatis, Gonzo, and Tsonga.

Semifinals:

Simon v. Murray
Roddick v. Federer

Finals:

Murray v. Federer

Champion:

Federer

Stunner in Shanghai

Gilles Simon def. Roger Federer, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. This was the headline that greeted me this afternoon as I surfed the sports-related news of the day.

I got home and watched this match anyway to see what exactly happened to Federer. ESPN gave up coverage of this tournament, along with two other major tournaments in the spring, to get coverage of the US Open, and we're now paying the price. Tennis Channel hasn't ponied up for this event (yet), so we're stuck with Fox Sports Net. FSN did the coverage for Indian Wells and Key Biscayne and did such a poor job that it was with much trepidation that I clicked through my DVR and hit "play" for the ATP Masters Series.

Justin Gimelstob is back commentating, somewhat surprising since his recent controversy had wiped him from the tennis landscape. His partner in the booth though was Leif Shiras, of whom I'm a fan, and a big improvement from the n00bifier they trotted out before, Barry Tompkins. Gimelstob has an irritating habit of repeating himself word for word and is still prone to talking too much, but he's improved as a commentator. He's cut back on the over-the-top exclamations, and eased up on the predictions that often left him eating crow.

But let's get to the match. Hewitt part deux, I mean, Gilles Simon, is a classic counterpuncher who hits a relatively flat ball, and has exceptional foot speed. The first time they met, Federer was coming off the long layoff after Wimbledon, with question marks about how he would handle the crushing defeat by Nadal. This time around, Federer had been out for 10 days, and there was uncertainty about whether a back injury would flare up. Back in August Federer won the first set, then went down in a flurry of forehand errors in sets two and three. What a bit of foreshadowing that turned out to be. This time, Federer came out with a very specific gameplan; stay aggressive on the forehand, change the height of the ball by throwing in some heavy topspin, and slice the backhand short crosscourt to bring Gilles up to the forecourt where he is less comfortable.

Federer took the first set on the strength of that short slice, despite some scratchy serving. Simon looked confused as to how to reply to that shot, awkwardly dumping it into the net, or following it in only to get passed by Fed. The times he did get his racket on the volley he made an absolute mess of it. It was not unlike this guy I played this past weekend. We were looking for a 4th for a Saturday morning doubles match, and Dan pulled in this unknown guy. As we were warming up I was impressed; the guy had some decent groundstrokes. Then he came to the net to warm-up and I found out that he couldn't volley to save his life. At all. It was literally an auto-point every time someone hit the ball at him at net in the match. Federer saved the one break point he faced and took it 6-4, and I wondered what was going to make the tide change in this match.

In the second set Federer broke early to go up 2-1, and I started to get really confused as to how he lost this match. Simon quickly broke back to level though, and that was key. The errors started to creep in on Federer, especially on the forehand side, but I was ok with that. Against a player like Simon you need to stay aggressive, and Federer bailed himself out of trouble with some timely first serves. Halfway through the set, Gimelstob astutely noticed a shift in the pattern of play; Simon was becoming the aggressor. His go-to play was to serve out wide in the deuce court, then step in to take the next ball early and drive it into the open court. Federer also stopped slicing the ball short; he kept slicing it, but he floated it deep to Simon's backhand, which was less effective. Federer got into trouble serving at 3-4 but pulled through. He fell behind again at 4-5 and this time wasn't so lucky. Simon broke him and we headed to the 3rd set!

On the changeover Federer seemed to dwell on his forehand misses. Simon served to open the 3rd and Federer smoked some forehands, losing the game in a flurry of errors. Simon impressed me with his intelligence on court. He's a bigger hitter than I initially gave him credit for; the ATP's site illogically doesn't post the winners to errors but he did hit a good share of winners against Federer, and also out-aced him. Simon is not known as a power player, but he did an excellent job of recognizing when Federer started to just rally with the forehand, looking to get back into a groove. Simon stepped around and cracked a few winners off those shots, and kept Federer from getting comfortable again on the forehand. At 2-3, Federer went down 0-40 and I thought "this is it!", but Federer took it to another level, somehow bearing down on the forehand and reeling off 8 straight points to hold and then go up 0-40 on Simon's serve! At this point I was a believer, sure that the Internet reports had all been wrong and that Federer was going to win this thing right now. My notes from this section read: first point, Federer chip and charges, Simon hits an inside in forehand down the line pass. Ace. Rally for a while, finished by a Federer forehand miss (badly). Federer chip and charges again, Simon lob, on the line! Rally, another bad forehand miss from Federer. With those two misses, Federer lost the range on his forehand and continued to misfire. Simon broke and served out the match in style, firing an ace up the T on match point.

Andy Murray took out Andy Roddick, so Federer will need to win out from here in order to have a shot at progressing from the round robin stage. He'll also need Murray to lose to Simon (a big ask) so as to not have the losing head to head if it comes to a tiebreaker. Less than ideal, to be sure, but remember, this is exactly what happened last year, as Federer lost the first match to Fernando Gonzalez before going on to win the whole shebang.

Tomorrow: Tsonga vs. del Potro and Djokovic vs. Davydenko. Looks like FSN coverage is 2-6pm everyday, if you can find it. Good luck.

Footloose

Roger Federer def. Andy Murray 6-2, 7-5, 6-2.

On Monday Roger Federer became the first man to win 5 straight US Opens since "Big" Bill Tilden in the 1920s (he said the 1920s!). That's pretty heady stuff, and puts Federer back on track to surpass Pete Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slam titles (Federer's now at 13). It also saves his year and re-establishes Federer at the top of his game, halting the penstrokes of various sportswriters in the midst of writing his obituary.

If you're looking for objective analysis of the final you'll have to move on; nothing to see here. I was incapable of watching this match from anything other than a fanboy perspective. The first set you almost had to spot Federer; Murray was clearly tight in his first Grand Slam final appearance, and Federer came out with guns blazing. The second set was a hard fought affair and could/should have been tighter had Murray gotten the break that he deserved (TV replays confirmed one of Federer's shots was out on break point). Once Federer broke at 6-5 and served it out, the match was effectively over. Federer was able to fully relax and went into full-out attack mode, while the air went out of Murray. The set was not even as close as the scoreline, 6-2.

So then, how did Federer turn it around and get back to his vintage form, when Jim Courier stated that Federer was still recovering from mono and a step slow, even in this tournament? It's a good question; I'm not sure myself. The biggest difference between the dominant Federer of the past 4 years and the shaky Federer of the past 4 months has been his forehand. That shot was absolutely lethal; Federer could hit a winner from anywhere on court with it. No less an authority than John McEnroe deemed it the "biggest weapon in the history of the sport". This year though, Federer had been misfiring from that side, and the critics came out en masse. "His confidence is shot", "He needs to use a bigger racket" (Federer plays with the smallest racket head on tour, at 90 sq inches), and others. I thought an entry from his post-match presser proved illuminating:

Q. An argument could be made that you had the mono early on and it's taken you all this time really to fully recover. Do you think that's possible?

ROGER FEDERER: Possibly. I mean, I didn't feel like I was moving all that great still, you know, for the last couple of months. I thought it was okay, you know. I think I was okay on clay and on grass. Then when I came back to hardcourts, I think just my coordination was missing a little bit, because first of all, I haven't played on hardcourt for a while, and usually that comes back quite automatically, without me having to force the issue. But I didn't feel like it was all that great moving, especially in Cincy and Toronto.

I think there were some good moments at times, occasionally, as well as the Olympic Games. And I think here as the tournament went on, I started to feel like I was moving better and better. I think that was a good sign for me, and that also gave me a lot of confidence being able to know I could play defense and offense, because sometimes I just had the feeling I had to play offense because my defense was just not acceptable in my standpoint.

Andy Roddick once made the observation that everyone talks about Roger's ability on offense, but defensively "he has no peer". It's really an underrated aspect of his game (still). Federer is the rubber-band man out on court, ranging wide to slice back would-be winners and stretching for balls beyond the reach of most other players. With his movement, and by extension defense, compromised by the mono, Federer felt the need to press on the forehand and started missing. The resulting losses had to have hurt his confidence, which only exacerbated the problem. However, starting with the Djokovic match, Federer moved brilliantly, and he continued that pattern into the final. I did NOT think he moved all that well against Andreev, so it's interesting that he chalks up the poor movement to the mono. It will be interesting to see if his movement stays at this level now, and how he will fare in the indoor swing.

So what's the tennis forecast going to look like heading into 2009? Will Federer return to the #1 ranking and dominate again? I do think Federer will return to the top spot, but I don't think he will dominate as he did. And this may surprise you: I think Federer's return to the top will be less a function of his own play than the decline of Rafael Nadal. I can't imagine how Nadal's managed to play so well this year given the style of play he employs. Just looking at his schedule wears me out. He's been pushing so hard for so long to get past Federer and now that he's had his golden year I think he will have a hard time sustaining that drive. Hard thing to say about Nadal, but his body has to give out at some point, right? I think Federer's main competition for 2009 is going to be Djokovic, who has the ability to win without expending a lot of energy. Looking farther ahead, I'm not buying Marin Cilic; that forehand take-back is way too busy. But keep your eye on Ernests Gulbis. I'm predicting a Top-5 future for him, and maybe more.